Crystal ball gazing for 2023

3 January 2023

While no-one can forecast the future with any certainty, here are five things I think we might expect to affect the hire industry in 2023. 

1. Unreliable economic forecasts. There is an old joke that the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions and, while useful, economic data has to be handled with care. How often have we read reports of construction demand falling one month, only to rise unexpectedly the next? And what exactly is meant by the term ‘construction’? HS2? Your neighbours building an extension? Most hirers serve customers across diverse sectors and can steer towards the areas of growth. Indeed, everyone’s experience and situation is different, so as always trust your own figures and judgement, and don’t rely unduly on the economists.

2. Growth. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the number of hire companies telling me in recent months that they plan to open new depots this coming year. And we’ve already seen several companies establishing new divisions within their operations which they plan to develop further, such as GAP’s Pump Services activity and Sunbelt Rentals’ film and television equipment hire business. I’m looking forward to covering other positive developments in the year ahead and that’s a great sign for the industry as we move forward. 

3. Acquisitions. Similarly, several companies have made no secret of the fact that they want to expand through acquisition. Others have also privately expressed thoughts of selling up, perhaps because of retirement plans or simply having reviewed their options post-Covid. I wonder what the first acquisition of 2023 will be?

4. Recruitment challenges. Despite factors suggesting a downturn, the number of job vacancies remains high throughout all industry, with hire being no exception. And finding people with the right qualities of dedication and commitment to service as well as technical skills is as challenging as ever. I can’t see that changing soon. Developing ways of attracting people – across all age groups – into hire will be high on the agenda for some time.

5. Price stability, but… Despite the earlier comments above about economists, many are surely right when they forecast a slowing in the spiralling rate of price increases affecting everything from prices and wages, to energy and fuel. So inflation should begin to plateau. However, prices will still be significantly higher than they were and will remain so. Indeed, Rishi Sunak stated early last year when he was still chancellor: “It is not sustainable to keep holding the price of energy artificially low. For me to stand here and pretend we don’t have to adjust to paying higher prices would be wrong and dishonest." 

So higher prices for energy - and many other things - are here to stay. But do your hire rates reflect that? 

Here’s to a Happy and Successful New Year for us all. 

Photo: Jeff Jacobs